EXTERNAL SHOCKS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN REGIONS

Abstract

Introduction. This paper examines the impact of exogenous shocks on the socioeconomic progress trajectory of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation over the period 2000-2022. Various types of external shocks are analyzed, such as the volatility of global commodity prices (oil, gas, and metals), geopolitical upheavals (sanctions, trade wars), and global recessions (the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic). The paper examines their impact on key regional socioeconomic indicators, including gross regional product (GRP) per capita, employment and unemployment rates, real incomes, investment activity (capital investment in fixed capital), and the industrial production index. Methods. The study's methodological framework utilizes panel regression models with both fixed effects and random effects to determine statistically significant correlations between external shocks and the dynamics of regional socioeconomic indicators. Statistically significant correlations were identified between external shocks and the dynamics of regional indicators, taking into account structural factors (economic diversification, fiscal policy). Results. The study showed that external shocks affect regions in different ways. Resource-rich regions (Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug) are the most sensitive to changes in commodity prices, which can lead to a decrease in GRP of up to 15 %. Industrial centers (Moscow, St. Petersburg) are more affected by economic downturns (up to 8-10 % decrease in GRP), while agricultural regions (Krasnodar Territory) are vulnerable to geopolitical factors. The regions' resilience is enhanced by diversifying the economy (reducing the negative impact by 20-30 %), receiving federal subsidies (increasing protection by 12 %), and developing innovations (accelerating recovery). These findings were summarized for regions with different specializations: raw materials, industrial, agricultural, and service-based. Discussion. The findings can assist government authorities in developing regional development strategies (national projects, regional programs), as well as in formulating economic policy instruments, such as creating stabilization funds, promoting diversification, and digitalization. Strengthening interregional cooperation and green investments is recommended to minimize the negative impacts of global economic and geopolitical transformations. Furthermore, the study's results are valuable for the academic community studying regional economics and sustainable development. The data can serve as a basis for forecasting regional responses to future external shocks (e.g., deglobalization), as well as for formulating adaptation strategies aimed at strengthening competitive advantages and long-term resilience. The study's novelty lies in its comprehensive consideration of multiple shocks and regional typologies.