The article presents a comprehensive SWOT analysis of the factors of development of coal exports of Russia in the context of structural imbalances in the development of transport and logistics infrastructure, the main problem of which is the current disproportion in the "railway/ports" pair and the desynchronization of the pace of development of surplus port capacities of the Russian Federation and the dynamics of increasing the capacity of the railway line, primarily the Eastern Polygon. The possibilities of resolving the coal logistics market dilemma by redirecting coal cargo flows to the south (and northwest) are considered and substantiated. The condition for activating this dilemma is the accelerated unblocking of bottlenecks and the elimination of the deficit of transport capacities on the approaches to the port of Taman, which will ensure additional loading of terminal capacities and the possibility of a competitive increase in the export flow of coal in the direction of the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). The purpose of the work is to reveal a set of inherent limitations of the Russian coal industry, the consideration and overcoming of which should expand the possibilities for further increasing the supplies of thermal coal for export in the context of the emerging "new" geography and market diversification of trade flows.
