STATE SUPPORT AND PROSPECTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

Abstract

Introduction. Entrepreneurship is a key driver of economic growth; however, the contribution of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to Russia’s GDP is only about 22%, significantly lower than in developed countries. Under sanctions pressure and structural economic transformation, assessing the effectiveness of existing state support measures and identifying ways to improve them becomes critical. The aim of this study is to analyze the state support system for entrepreneurship in the Russian Federation, identify its problems, and develop evidence-based recommendations for increasing its efficiency. Methods. The research is based on a systemic approach. Statistical analysis (Rosstat, SME Corporation data for 2020-2025), comparative analysis (effectiveness of various support mechanisms), economic-mathematical modeling (Cobb‑Douglas production function with three scenarios up to 2030), and expert assessments were used. The successful experience of the Krasnodar Krai as a leading region in entrepreneurial development was analyzed separately. Results. The coverage of SMEs with support measures does not exceed 8 %. The highest multiplier effects are demonstrated by innovation vouchers (8.7 rubles of additional revenue per 1 ruble of support) and guarantee support (7.2 rubles). The Krasnodar Krai case (SME contribution to GRP 33.8 %, survival rate of supported farms 89 %) shows the effectiveness of an integrated regional ecosystem. Modeling under three scenarios (inertial, targeted, comprehensive) shows that the synchronous implementation of eight proposed directions (risk‑based regulation, personalized digital support, regional ecosystems, spatial development, social entrepreneurship, export support, corporate acceleration, entrepreneurial education) would increase the SME contribution to GDP to 32-35 % by 2030, create 6-8 million new jobs, and achieve a budget efficiency of 2.5-3.0 rubles of tax revenue per 1 ruble of support. Discussion. Achieving these targets requires not only increasing funding to 0.8-1.0 % of GDP but also qualitatively improving delivery mechanisms, including reducing service turnaround time (from 45 to 20 days), differentiating measures by region type (agro‑industrial, research‑intensive, extractive, megacities), and ensuring institutional stability of support. The proposed directions can be integrated into the strategic socio‑economic development documents of the Russian Federation.